Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 92598.660212 97640.342267 102677.962420 108085.793805 113723.228027 119423.268731 125618.725318
2025-07-13 85200.574377 92978.803112 100963.575031 109762.497964 119175.733967 128933.521729 139802.315232
2025-07-20 79879.631925 89575.045102 99741.793071 111175.924579 123654.985256 136838.846910 151797.902285
2025-07-27 75429.289211 86547.517778 98416.261351 111993.050436 127056.762577 143220.660315 161838.685642
2025-08-03 71355.231960 83553.703992 96782.300072 112141.221641 129428.117583 148228.296447 170163.836714
2025-08-10 68050.775634 81158.964227 95576.779113 112540.130118 131877.153556 153157.498551 178269.257279
2025-08-17 64986.131723 78834.456752 94267.149923 112647.586423 133844.990075 157425.326369 185537.458020
2025-08-24 62968.170026 77580.554444 94059.618708 113903.986624 137030.086243 163005.016960 194255.507855
2025-08-31 60368.089222 75510.715945 92786.451417 113813.377049 138565.360797 166624.382899 200677.224397
2025-09-07 58890.086615 74683.160007 92891.140953 115267.405849 141847.149878 172228.332667 209386.661803
2025-09-14 57273.932900 73608.200798 92632.014339 116228.535661 144501.560251 177074.032677 217207.357472
2025-09-21 55338.965587 72064.135473 91738.779957 116365.474081 146123.605219 180671.213610 223543.834698
2025-09-28 53425.296194 70497.285537 90781.659985 116402.616855 147623.278080 184144.954819 229788.066127
2025-10-05 52503.450194 70119.306032 91240.788981 118138.635835 151164.270990 190061.628632 238981.630654
2025-10-12 51524.772673 69625.736740 91521.781867 119628.807550 154392.726137 195607.464577 247757.610027
2025-10-19 50305.777312 68779.775303 91324.668233 120493.746454 156833.116659 200195.377981 255390.847699
2025-10-26 48821.558788 67542.737397 90592.215757 120650.465281 158368.656131 203666.737640 261668.042584
2025-11-02 47544.316118 66528.007125 90100.302344 121073.710971 160208.891712 207497.500279 268388.224225
2025-11-09 46194.621420 65374.508337 89392.214247 121187.725291 161635.212308 210804.542818 274466.002200
2025-11-16 45457.202988 64997.791758 89655.783611 122521.040501 164586.690780 216001.328966 282899.865024
2025-11-23 44134.929450 63804.928771 88829.842158 122424.887396 165704.499100 218906.409020 288491.486377
2025-11-30 43573.797459 63608.991216 89282.868306 123967.749066 168906.221149 224424.327363 297369.109234
2025-12-07 42821.695109 63130.330946 89345.126146 124987.481460 171431.536976 229098.539798 305211.936175